Critical to share: How a military conflict in Eastern Europe can be prevented
Respecting the will of the people and the basic tenets of democracy locally, nationally and internationally is the answer to all problems threatening local and global peace.
The war in Ukraine seems to be escalating to levels threatening the peace of the entire European continent, and the time for finding solutions to preserve peace seems to be running out by the minute.
How can we gather our voices and firmly tell politicians to stop the conflict before there will be more casualties?
To understand how wars can be restricted and prevented, we first need to understand their full etiology, as well as how local communities feel about being part of the influence of a certain country.
The historical context
We must understand the history of Ukraine and Russia in order to be able to analyse the etiology of the current military conflict.
The following two videos can assist with that.
The first one was made 8 years ago and it is probably more relevant and current now than even when it was first made!
The second video is a full length documentary called Ukraine on Fire .
It was made in 2016 (so again, well before the current events) by director Igor Lopatonok as well as one Oliver Stone (who is ‘kinda’ famous) as executive producer.
The documentary features videos from the 2014 events in Ukraine now known as the Maidan revolution as well as one-on-one lengthy interviews Stone conducted with key figures from that time including Viktor Yanukovich, the Ukrainian President who was deposed during that revolution, and Vladimir Putin.
Regardless of what you may think of the Russian President, some of the stuff he has said to Oliver Stone 7 years ago sounds quite reasonable and in the context of the current events, almost prophetic.
We need to also see how the local communities in each region of Ukraine voted with regards to their desire to be either under the influence of the Russian Federation or NATO.
Let us take a look at the proportions of the people in Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine that voted for Russian influence, and at the proportions of the population in Central and Western Ukraine that voted for NATO influence.
Yes, there may be incidences of vote suppression, but the current data still indicates there is a visibly prevalent size of the population in South and East Ukraine who wish to be under Russian influence.
Furthermore, a lot of the residents of Eastern Ukraine (e.g. Donbass region) who are overwhelmingly Russian, have been literally begging Russia for years to annex their territory with Putin refusing for years to even consider the idea.
This is not implying that Russia is innocent in the conflict, but emphasizing the critical need to preserve peace and freedom of movement in Eastern Europe.
What is needed to preserve peace and free movement?
Simple: a dialogue between Putin, Zelenskyy and Biden in Kiev to discuss all points involving the desire of the majority of the local populations in Ukraine with regards to Russian and NATO influences.
I believe it is sensible for Ukraine not to become a full member of NATO for a significant amount of time, unless there is a deal with the Russian Federation that a substantial geographical area of Ukraine remains a buffer zone between NATO and Russia.
Steps that may be crucial to protect peace in Eastern Europe:
NATO countries should immediately stop engaging in activities that are clearly provoking retaliation from Russia, whether financial, resource-based or even military. Continue offering people affected by the war the easy option of becoming residents of countries bound by peace.
Dialogue should be initiated immediately! Individual NATO member countries are still sovereign and are capable of making decisions without pressure from more powerful members of the bloc. There should be a firm pressure from people for the conflict not to be supported and extended.
Keep at least the Central line of Ukraine neutral. NATO should not be next to Russia given their separate geopolitical vision and objectives.
Listen to the will of the people constituting the local populations in all major regions of Ukraine and grant their democratic wishes, whether it is to become part of the influence by NATO or by Russia. It is still possible that Ukraine will remain an integral country with a regional split according to geopolitical visions.
Strike deals between NATO and Central-Western regions of Ukraine in order for the local population to have better access to visas and support from Western countries, all without bringing NATO influence close to Russia.
Bring Moldova and Transnistria to a dialogue and consider giving Transnistria their independence if necessary. Do not give the current Moldavian area beyond the Dniester river to Ukraine, but aim to give them complete statal independence, provided that the majority of the population desires independence from Moldova. The vast majority of the population is heavily pro-Russia and the rule of democracy ought to be granted. This may prevent the onset of a civil war in Moldova and Transnistria.
If Transnistria does not wish to be independent of Moldova, locally split Moldova between the pro-Russia Transdniestrian part of Moldova and the rest of Moldova. Sign clear deals that rules of independence are not to be breached in either side of the new border. The same should occur with the pro-Russia-dominant and pro-NATO-dominant areas of Ukraine.
Create a de-militarized line in Central Ukraine; a line of complete neutrality that separates NATO from Russia.
Above all, please aim for the de-escalation of local and broad socio-political tensions. As John F. Kennedy said, world peace is possible, let alone peace in Eastern Europe. No national borders are needed to be built to prevent an escalation of the war.
Sometimes, it is better to reach some less than ideal compromise then to further provoke escalation of conflict.
To the people who claim Transnistria used to be part of Romania before the Second World War, this is misinformation. Romania only covered geographical areas between the Tisa and the Dniester rivers.
Overall, there needs to be an urgent and transparent dialogue between the Presidents of the US, Ukraine and the Russian Federation so all points contributing to peace are discussed with care and in all layers of detail.
The greater good is world peace, wellbeing and true prosperity.